Via Calculated Risk
In the week ending January 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 352,000, a decrease of 50,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 402,000. The 4-week moving average was 379,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 382,500.
As a rule of thumb it is generally accepted that to reduce unemployment this needs to be below <400k.
I am starting to become modestly optimistic.